Readers enter reviews here
What did you think book America’s Bubble Economy?
Â
Â
|
America’s Bubble Economy - Profit When it Pops Chosen by Kiplinger’s as one of the 30 Best Business Books of 2007 Paul Farrel, Senior Columnist at Dow Jones Market Watch said on February 12, 2008, "In short, America'c Bubble Economy's prediction, though ignored, was accurate". |
||||||||||||
28 Responses to “Readers enter reviews here”Leave a Reply |
 |
|||||||||||
November 28th, 2007 at 2:17 pm
JL, I don’t know if you are still reading these comments still, but this response is for you. I am in the same situation as you are, with a Federal Government Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) retirement fund. I am also frustrated by the limited number of investment options provided by TSP, preventing people like us from investing in gold or euros as suggested by “America’s Bubble Economy”, or in energy or other commodity funds that might have a better chance in the future. For those unfamiliar with TSP, we are limited to 5 basic options: the C Fund (US large/medium cap stocks, S&P 500 index), S Fund (US small/medium cap stocks, DJW 4500 index), the I Fund (”International” stocks, EAFE index), G Fund (Gov’t Securities), or F Fund (LBA Bond Index). They also have an L-Fund (Lifecycle Fund) that automatically does the asset allocation for you using the other 5 funds, depending on your age.
The other problem with the TSP is that we cannot move our funds from TSP until we retire, reach age 59 and 1/2, or quit our jobs. So those of us still working who aren’t yet 59 and 1/2 do not have the option to roll our existing nest egg into an IRA unless we quit our jobs! If someone else has found a way, please let me know!
As for trying to figure out how to intelligently invest $ within TSP given the current economic scenario with the limited options we’re given, I’m also pulling my hair out. The best I could come up with is trying to mitigate damage by avoiding what I believe are the riskiest investments right now (US stocks and bonds). That leaves their I fund (International stock index, EAFE) and G Fund (US Government Securities). So, not knowing what else to do, I moved about 1/3 of my $ to EAFE (gets some of my $ out of dollars) and 2/3 to the G Fund. Both of these options scare me, because I think if the US stock market goes down, the EAFE index will as well. But US Gov’t Securities don’t seem like a better option because they are based on US dollars. So what’s a person invested in TSP to do??? I’d love to hear others’ advice on how to deal with the TSP investing dilemma, given the economic scenario we are in!
September 26th, 2007 at 12:09 pm
I have read your book and agree with most of what you say; however, there is a discrepancy that I would like to bring to your attention.
In Chapter V you are saying to sell all Real Estate except for your primary residence. Then, in Chapter VII, you are telling us to buy into businesses in the “necessities” area in order to survive. “Shelter” is a necessity.
I purchased numerous rentals over the years, all with at least a 20% down. I have been doing this for 20 years. All of my rental units are “bread and butter” properties, and usually rent out to middle - lower middle class families. All are at or below a 60% LTV, and give a nice positive cash flow.
I have been semi-retired since I was 55 years old and live off of my income from these properties, one of which is paid off entirely.
How in the world would I benefit by selling my only source of income, in an area which will always be a necessity???
September 17th, 2007 at 9:41 am
I have taken to heart your counsel to be wary of gold stocks over buillion. I have gold coins at home and it is very reassuring to have wealth outside the ability of (1)company management to bleed out the appreciation through options and stock buybacks, (2) difficulty in mining, lower than expected grades, difficult governments and (3) banks to implode and lock their doors, with your money in it. Excellent book, walks you through the rationale of considering various investments and why you like some and dislike others. I agree with your choices wholeheartedly.
August 26th, 2007 at 1:09 pm
I bought the book at a seminar at the New York Hard Assets Show in May, 2007 for a cash price of $10… what a deal!!
Once I started reading it, I found it an easy read since the book is laid out in a chronological manner. When I got further in the book, I was frankly disappointed that the author(s) thought that precious metal stocks would do poorly in the coming calamity. I am a PM investor with a good chunk invested in PM stocks and a smaller chunk in precious metals (both silver and gold).
So here we are at the end of August, 2007 and a good many things written about in the book have come true! Unfortunately, I got clobbered in the junior PM stocks while my bullion and bullion products stayed steady.
In fact, on a bullboard I frequent (smartinvestment.ca), I posted that the author(s) were uncannily correct in their projections for the future (at the time of writing in 2006). It’s not often that one gets to see the future for a mere $10.
Bravo for a well thought-out book that has turned out to be bang on as to what is currently happening.
Oh and btw… I have stepped up my purchases of bullion quite a bit. In addition, I have now set my sights solely on stocks of PM producers and very near-term producers. Hopefully I will be able to ride out this turmoil or possibly even come out ahead.
Thanks
gerry lobel
August 23rd, 2007 at 9:02 am
Book is good and I’m reading it again. The probabilities discussed in the book are just that: probabilities. But to me they seem the most likely probabilities. But when? This brings me to a thought about China and the dollar. I just got back from China for the 4th time. It occurred to me that the Chinese government will continue to buy dollars up until the Olympics in 2008, so don’t even expect the dollar to make a great fall until after that event is complete.
July 7th, 2007 at 4:18 pm
Vern,
Thank you very much for your thoughtful comments and insights (from your May 23rd post). I am currently reading Howard Ruff’s “Ruff’s Little Book of Big Fortunes in Gold & Silver”. I have been studying the stock and housing markets; and I am beginning to turn the corner and share the contrarian sentiments that the stock market is about to head for a fall. In my mind, the stock market is government sanctioned gambling. Most of us know what usually happens when one stays long enough playing the slot machines in a casino. I agree with you that one doesn’t need to time anything; one needs to be in the trade when the time arrives.
June 5th, 2007 at 7:44 pm
I read with interest how the interaction of the various bubbles could lead to the collapse of our economy. The suggestion that gold is probably the best hedge to protect your assets when the economy takes a dive does not give much attention to what may be an even better choice. According to Ted Butler and Franklin Sanders, silver is likely to be at least THREE times better for upside potential at todays prices. There is 5 times MORE gold above ground than silver today and gold is about 50x the price. If the gold market can be classified as tiny, then the silver market has to be called miniscule at today’s prices. (1/250 in value). I’m betting on silver, not gold. Check it out because silver and gold prices are not currently determined by supply and demand, but are manipulated by large financial entities whose interest is to keep the price depressed. Gold’s supply increases yearly while silver is consumed faster than it can be mined. This deficit has been in effect for many years. Silver reserves are almost non-existent so a price explosion to the upside is almost inevitable whenever shortages of silver occur. Since Warren Buffet was cited to have purchased euros and that confirmed a good bet, it should be noted that he purchased over 130 million oz. of silver in 1997 and no gold. This might spark some interest in silver. Buffet sold his silver last year, presumably because silver doubled in price last year and he was more than likely caught in a price squeeze while shorting silver at that time. A good website to check out is www.investmentrarities.com. Ted Butler’s commentaries can be read and are updated frequently. Also, his past articles can be read by clicking “market update newsletters”. A good way to check which metal (gold or silver) is performing better is to calculate the gold/silver ratio by dividing the gold price by the silver price, which has been hovering around 50 and has declined from about 82 in May 2003, indicating silver has outperformed gold. A chart of this ratio indicates the trend is down for this ratio. If this trend continues and the ratio decreases below 50, it will confirm that silver is outperforming gold as an investment. Franklin Sanders expects this ratio is headed for a value of about 30 in the near future and recommends holding silver over gold.
May 30th, 2007 at 8:07 am
Robert and Eric:
It was a pleasure meeting you both at Hard Assets 07 in NYC. Thanks for signing your book. Without question, your book will be deemed prophetic. Congratulations on it being selected one of the best business books for 2006. This IS an achievement and is a credit to you both, along with your associate authors. Concurrence of opinion was prevalent in NYC, that: The Stock market is headed for a big fall, the housing market will slow, stagnate and fall, the dollar continues to fall, and it will be a non-linear event, such as a US or Israeli incursion into Iran and/or a terrosist bombing attack (nuclear, chemical or EMP) on the USA - it’s soil which will pop the first bubbble, which will then cause the sucessive bubbles to pop because they are so interlinked, interrelated, interdependant. We can expect Marshall law, introduction of a new replacement currency such as the Amero, as a first step. The Council on Foreign Relations has suggested in their most recent issue international currency, which tracks with your Chapter on the view from 30,000 feet. It is coming, possibly to be called the Phoenix. Time will tell. Once again, we need to share this alarming news with whomever will listen, as the political, social and economic dislocations and readjustments until we reach equilibrium again will cause alot of pain and suffering in the interim. YOU NEED TO WRITE A SEQUEL, AN UPDATED VERSION with the current economic trends and statistics, which shows that alot of money will be going to money heaven soon. A few of the speakers at HA07 stated a market correction of 1/3 to 1/2 is probable- after the non-linear event. The comfortable symbiosis with China will then be broken and hyperinflation will be the next step before total dollar collapse and the new currency is introduced, perhaps with a false promise of gold backing. We will see. Ron Paul talks sense, but everyone is against him. It would be a miracle and provision from the Lord if he were elected. God knows the outcome already.
Mike Weare
President
Remnant Resources, Ltd.
May 23rd, 2007 at 1:50 pm
Tim,
Though I am not one of the authors I am of an age and Net Worth that your Professor and you have not yet reached. Please keep in mind; that one must learn only from “true sources”. Taking advice or gaining an education from those that have not “been there” simply is a waste of time. There is a reason your Professor has a job, and why she draws a wage. Ask yourself this..if she is this talented, this wise, then why is she not applying her own education in the Markets to her own betterment of income?
I would suggest you do what is required to obtain your Degree, then move forward into Life with the goal of learning from only true sources. There are a few, but not many. Ted Warren was one, for example. I doubt you’ve heard of him. Most haven’t..but he was a true source.
We are all living in exceptional economic times. It is quite obvious. When I was collecting Gold and Silver in the mid 1970’s (a lot of it), sold off in 1982, and again stepped in 1999-2000 I was subjected to all kinds of negativity. You have to learn to endure this in order to not follow the herds, because the herds are lead to the slaughterhouse 9 times out of 10.
These times now are almost an exact copy of what the conditions were in the 1970’s..only this time there are much higher numbers in the works. Consider this. How much are you willing to risk by not acting in defense of your own future, regardless of what “educated” or “professional” persons tell you? Everything?
It’s not fear that should guide anyone…its simply prudent thought.
This book is a valuable effort, and you did well to mull over these things..and I hope you take it to heart, but it is important for everyone to keep in mind you must learn Investing for yourself. No one can give you the right choices for you totally. Each of us are at different levels of true wealth. Even if there was a person that had all the correct answers in investing and you followed them step by step..what would you when they died? And, by the way..there is no such person..there is no such book, there is no such program or plan. This is about as close as a book can get that I have seen in quite some time.
So.. when a “hyped” Market arrives it’s as easy as hearing it to know (Rememeber Dot.Gones..Can’t loose?). One day Gold will again be a hyped market (it sure was in 1981 I can tell you from experience!!). When you hear the words everywhere “Gold can’t go down..even at 20 times the historical average price..Silver is always going to be this much or more Hurry hurry!!”..that is the words you need to hear in order to SELL every bit you have. Same with Real Estate, with Collectables, Equities, Bonds, Gems, Precious Metals,ect.. When no one wants to buy into those Investments that’s the time to do it.
You have to overcome irrational fear and become counter-intuitive in Investing to become wealthy. Your own Mind will be telling you that your crazy..and you have to understand this, and then learn to tell it “shut up..I know what I’m doing”.
And one answer here..you do not have time anything..you simply have to be in the Trade when the time arrives. Best wishes.
May 11th, 2007 at 6:08 pm
This book will one day be deemed prophetic, forward thinking and only those with eyes to hear and ears to hear will have taken heed, to take to heart and to action the advice given in this book. The high and mighty and pretentious can not connect the dots, because they think they can steer the chaos through, but this will not occur. We are seeing the precurser to the time of Jacob’s trouble. Jesus Christ will return soon. Read Mathew 24, Daniel and Ezekial and Revelation. The alignment of nations, the return of the state of Israel after 19 centuries, the technologicy that create vitual money(”they could neither buy nor sell without the mark of the beast”),the weaponry to extinguish major blocks of people in microseconds,the ecumenicalism spreading the world by watered down pragmatists from all the world religions, the debauchery, crumbling of moral fabric of society, the increase in violence, the lack of respect for authority, all contribute to our economic decline, the living for today only of the expedient takes precidence over the strategic and long view (ie:no Real Savings occuring in USA),all of these along with REAL spiritual attacks against the “people of the book” on all fronts are coelescing into a ever faster twisting tornado that will hit an F5, in which the political-economic inertia will implode and thus enter suedoChrist, the false Christ to save the world, a leader who will bring “sense” and security to it all- to restore the way things were. Watch, learn, pray and protect your families. Be vigilent, be brave, be steadfast no matter what is thrown your way. The one True God, our Eternal Living God, Creator of all things, outside of time and space, watches the drauma unfold and knows the end before it is here. May he find us faithful. To the Remnant-get some commodities with which you can negotiate in an underground barter economy- as taking a mark on the hand or forehead would be an allegiance to the pseduo-false Christ which will spell your destruction and condemnation by Jesus Christ. BE ALERT! ASK FOR WISDON AN DISCERNMENT MY FRIENDS.
Michael Weare
President
Remnant Resources, Ltd.
April 19th, 2007 at 10:01 am
I enjoyed reading your book. I’m a freshman at UC Berkeley. When I told my economics professor about your book over lunch, she made three comments: 1. It takes a long time to write a book. By the time you get to read a published book on the latest economic trends, the ideas are probably outdated, since the global economy is changing fast. 2. Doom and gloom are what sells books, especially to hysterical and inexperienced investors. 3. There is no way to time the stock market. Likewise, there is no way to time one economic bubble, let alone trying to time the simultaneous bursting of the six economic bubbles described in your book. How do you respond to these comments?
April 18th, 2007 at 7:18 am
I’ve read the book and am disappointed that the promised associated material is not on the web site.
April 9th, 2007 at 10:52 am
Purchased your book and while reading noticed a typo, or an error. On page 41 in a phrase in the top paragraph it is written “because people refuse see them” … should probably read “because people refuse *to* see them.
Just thought you may want to know…
March 23rd, 2007 at 11:54 am
I think the book is a great read, and quite sound. Wish it was easier to ” time the great fall”. The authors fail to note a simple concept when there is a big change towards inflation of the currency. All one has to do is find fixed rate debt in large quantities ( for hard assets like income property ) and pay it back with hyper inflated currency.
February 11th, 2007 at 7:02 pm
America’s Bubble Economy is of very limited value. While the truth claims are straight forward enough, the haphazard presentation of facts, the redundancy and the constant reference “to more about that later” left me very dubious of the effort invested in organizing content. Chapters are segmented and lack collaboration by authors. This book really should be read backwards.
The website is also amaturish and obviously not serviced regularly. I am impressed that I’m only the 15th reader to comment–perhaps the bubble theories WILL remain our little secret.
February 5th, 2007 at 3:43 pm
This book gives a deep economic analisis to america’s
bubble economy, thus it is very easy and fun to read.
It shows how to identify signs of an impending collapse and how to hedge against a crash and position yourself to profit when the bubbles burst. More importantly, this is a real wakeup call for all of us.
Thanks Marina Adler
January 29th, 2007 at 1:42 pm
Hi,
I found your blog via google by accident and have to admit that youve a really interesting blog
Just saved your feed in my reader, have a nice day
January 10th, 2007 at 8:33 am
Great book. Think you’re right on target. However, one of your premises is that the US will always honor its national debt. I’m not so sanguine. Is it not possible US might default, on a limited basis at least? Consequences would be severe, but you can’t rule it out. Regards, David Reese
January 5th, 2007 at 8:52 pm
JL;
Read the book by Ed Slott, “Parlay Your IRA into a Family Fortune”
You can role that TSP plan to an IRA then to a Roth if you wish and set up a “Self Directed IRA”. I hrsr that in 2008 you will be able to role the TSP direct to a Roth. Don’t forget you have to pay income taxes for the Roth. If your are not retired or I believe 59 and a half you may have to pay ten percent penalty too. Also a Roth cannot br tapped for five years to be a Roth and eligible for tax free profits.
As I understand to create a self directed you must use a Trust company too. You can never touch the money till distribution time or the IRS will get you. Read the book and talk to an expert.
December 30th, 2006 at 12:44 pm
Hello,
I just read the book and am sitting up and taking notice. A big problem I have noticed is in my US Federal Government 401k known as the TSP (Thrift Savings Plan). There is no investment vehicle within the plan for commodities or currencies. Just some stock index funds and some bond funds. How am I to do anything described or recommended in the book with this constrictive investment vehicle, which is supposed to provide me with the majority of my “secure” government retirement. The Thrift Savings Plan could be a major subject of discussion on this site as so many Americans rely on this type of investment vehicle that is totally oriented towards the conventional wisdom of a constantly improving stock market.
Any ideas out there?
December 27th, 2006 at 11:39 pm
The book is useful, with the exception of one perplexing issue.
The last chapter calls for an international currency, managed by an international central bank.
Surely, the authors realize that central banks are the *source* and the *cause* of ALL inflation. Why do they advocate for an international digital currency, the holy grail of the elitists?
Page 251 states “(the international digital currency) will be inflation free because the system tha tcontrols the supply of (the ditigal money) will be set up to avoid it” This is laughable. The elitists and their money center banks, which OWN the central banks, use inflation as their main tool for subjugation of the masses.
The authors lose all credibility when they start spouting nonsense like this.
December 26th, 2006 at 8:59 pm
While I agree with the overall conclusions, I think some of the statistics are presented in a way as to over emphasize them. When the authors want to minimize the growth of something, it is adjusted for inflation (for example income). However, when the authors wants to maximize the growth of something, it is not adjusted for inflation (for example, housing prices, trade deficit, stock prices, etc.) For example, the authors compare real income (which is adjusted for inflation) with housing prices (not adjusted for inflation). When the authors want to make the point that stock prices have gone up huge in the last decades, they are shown not adjusted for inflation. However, when the authors want to make the point that stock prices have not gone up much the last few years, then they are adjusted for inflation. The points are still valid, but I think the statistics should have been compared in a consistent manner.
December 13th, 2006 at 5:40 pm
In the early 80s, I was in college and heard about the one world economy, one government, one monetary currency, one religion, etc. But, this was through a Christian Bible Study on campus and they were teaching about Prophecy–and the “End Times”. So, I found it interesting that in your book you’ve suggested some of the same things that will happen as prophesied in the Bible. It’s interesting and scary at the same time. This certainly is a wake up call…for me anyways.
December 7th, 2006 at 6:10 pm
After reading through your book, I spot a common appeal of future events that are being mentioned in other books, websites, and I have come to the conclusion we are living in this mess and it is increasingly taking hold. Many prophecies in the Bible even may relate to the idea of a dollar collapse, such as when it states Babylon will fall in one hour, and the rest of the world’s merchants will have no one to sell to so they wept. This may be referring to the dollar and the United States as Babylon. Interesting thought. Alot of what I see in this country appears as fake, surface, and illusionary. Where are making and producing any real wealth anymore, now it’s just store fronts, plazas, gas stations, and wal-marts. These places are selling goods made in other nations while restaurants are like doing others laundry. There is not wealth creation left in this country. In a short time Americans will be woken to the truth.
November 27th, 2006 at 9:40 pm
Got the book today and started reading. I read several books that deal with the “American Empire” phenomena (The best till now for me was “Empire of Debt”) and basically I agree with your approch. You did write a book in a simple Lunguage which is fine for all, although I am afraid that those who needs it most (the peopole who live from a steady income/job) are not going to read it.
What I find missing here is being more specific regarding the practical steps to take.
You suggest to short stocks, and provide the www in your site which is empty since JUNE??
Even the euro ETF (FXE) is not mentioned by the symbol. People need the details to take action.
Beside that I m afraid that you are right and we are already in the colission course
gz
November 26th, 2006 at 6:27 pm
For quite some time, I have been following the demise of America’s economic and financial foundation. In fact, I am quite surprised that the bubbles have inflated as much as they have. While my opinions differ in some respects from those presented in the book, I am generally in agreement that we have multiple bubbles and that the dollar is headed down while US market interest rates will rise and dollar denominated financial assets will fall a very long way while life sustaining goods will inflate here tremendously. Even in 2005, however, there was significant dollar asset buying from London which is thought by many to be petrodollars, and these investments are currently larger than China’s on a periodic basis. China’s recent milestone of $1 trillion in reserves is thought to be only about 70% in US dollar assets. So, who knows how long the party will last? I don’t.
I might add a different perspective about how we, the American People, got into this pickle. During WWII, we leveraged very heavily to build an industrial war machine, and we hit the jackpot after winning the war. Other industrial economies were destroyed or severly harmed, the world needed to be rebuilt, and we had the only game in town. Our material living standard rose accordingly and for good reasons for decades. But as the 1980s passed, our advantgage had dissipated and we did not notice it. We all grew up knowing only the spectacularly unusual time post WWII, and we have felt entitled to ever rising material living standards. When that didn’t come from real earnings, we simply used easy credit to satisfy our feeling of entitlement. By so doing, we have transferred the baton of future real growth (our balance sheet) to those who are willing to work twice as long and hard as we are while gladly taking pay at ten or fifteen percent of our wages. Obviously, that cannot last. The politics of entitlement have followed a similar course and will exacerbate the problems here. Severe political unrest may even result.
November 20th, 2006 at 5:10 pm
I got rid of my brokerage accounts back during the early 2000’s crash.
I suppose one is necessary to buy ETF’s? ETF’s are new to me.
Yes, I switched my concentration to Real Estate and getting into rental property. I liked the tax break much better. I just sold some RE about the time I read your book. The tax penality of holding it all is serious as taxes always are when you win real gain.
You say don’t buy now. I ask if I can make up the 21% fed and state taxes by making small taxable interest and waiting for a bottom in Real Estate. That is a tough call. I did lose 50% value in a house over three years when I got caught in the early eighties crash in western Colorado. But most of the country did not take it so hard(exceptTexas). That loss nearly broke me. At the same time I passed up a millionair maker opportunity to buy property in Snowmass Ski Area if I could have held out during the eighties. Experience makes me believe the next few years will see major losses in Real Estate in some parts of the country but what will it do in popular areas not as overpriced. Temptation to 1031 and avoid taxes is great. What say you?
November 20th, 2006 at 4:37 pm
On 10/26/06 3:56 PM, “Rodney L Woods” wrote:
Two things always bother me about playing with numbers. (1)We have no savings rate in the US because the interest rates are so low.
However, (2)we save lots of money in mutual funds and other paper investments. We invest in real estate and stocks. What definition accounts for that type of savings?
Statistics are wielded like clubs that often misrepresent and some of us are saying what about the other statistics where the money actually is located?
I am not debating basic points here but just trying to figure how to factor in the money (or imaginary money)
where it actually is located.
Speaking of imaginary money, most of it is just electrons now, not cash. I think that has its own risk!
Where is the best place, time and method to get hold of some Euros’? Real cash!
R